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Author Topic: AMR's in Trouble
Irish
Post Captain
Member # 722

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In case you missed it, AMR stock was down 33% today and is off 75% for the year. AA pilots are retiring at a pace that is ten times the normal rate, hoping to preserve their retirement should AMR declare bankruptcy.

I'm assuming that, in a bankruptcy, my 63 year-old spouse will lose her medical insurance, but I'm wondering what might happen to the TWA life insurance policies we TWA retirees have at AA. Any thoughts?

Paul

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mioguido
Post Captain
Member # 123

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i saw something on the national news last week expressing your same feelings about what the future might hold for AA. something seems to be
going on there imo. [Eek!] very interesting to say the least.

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Dick Nicklas
Post Captain
Member # 934

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Who knows?

AMR upgraded at Rodman & Renshaw after selloff
8:38 am ET 10/04/2011 - MarketWatch Pulse News Bullet
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of American Airlines parent AMR Corp. were raised to market perform from underperform at Rodman & Renshaw on Tuesday, following a sharp prior-day selloff on concerns of a potential bankruptcy. "If AMR really was contemplating a Chapter 11 filing, history tells us we'd know," said analyst Daniel McKenzie. Management would first go to labor and publicly ask for concessions, but instead the carrier is making it clear to union leaders that bankruptcy is not part of the plan, McKenzie said. "But this isn't enough to justify an upgrade," he added, noting industry demand and pricing remain intact heading into the fourth quarter. McKenzie maintained a $5 price target for AMR shares. After falling 33% in prior-day trading, AMR stock was up about 10% premarket on Tuesday to $2.17.

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Jeff I.
Post Captain
Member # 2334

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Personally I think it would be a good bet to invest in AMR right now. I am not surprised to see the stock back up a bit this morning as yesterday's bloodbath was a bit over the top.

Having said that, I have no plans to purchase any shares. I may have learned a lesson from my investment in TWA. The airline industry is too precarious and bankruptcies too common to risk throwing money out the door.

Still ...... I don't know .... $2+ is a bit tempting ...... at least for a small stake (after all ..... I haven't been to Vegas for a few years so .... it's probably no worse than playing craps or roulette!).

Jeff I.

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mioguido
Post Captain
Member # 123

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quote:
Originally posted by Jeff I.:
I may have learned a lesson from my investment in TWA. The airline industry is too precarious and bankruptcies too common to risk throwing money out the door.
Jeff I.

i'm still walking like John Wayne from my TWA investment!
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Robert Dedman
Post Captain
Member # 366

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Just got back from the TARPA Convention in San Antonio. Good one and 85 attended. What I would like to interject is about AA. I flew 4 legs (ID 20) from Norfolk-Dallas -San Antonio and back and every seat was taken. To say that there is service is a laugh. Even first did not get much...we got drinks, 1 and thats all. 25 minutes before landing, all seats were up and flight attendants were seated. first landing was a rib shaker followed by panic application of brakes. Next leg, DFW-SAT, flight was smooth, nice approach and grease job, good reverse and little braking. On deplaning, found this crew was TWA STL. What a difference.
Spoke with the cockpit crew and mentioned the difference in landings. They said, AA teaches, land on the 1500 mark not matter what. Return trip proved it again, all smashers.
AA seems to suffer from "don't care about passengers" attitude. But, having said that, if you cannot make money with full and oversold flights, you ought to get into some other business. I find Southwest a whole lot friendlier, seats are better and you even get nuts or pretzels. If you are over 65 and REGISTER with them, you are eligible for senior discounts.
Of course , all our worries are about our TWA people involved with this looming problem. Are they going to be dumped again?

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Roger Moore
Post Captain
Member # 2204

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I would not advise investing in AMR stock at this time. We had a TWA pilot who will remain unnamed who dumped his entire B fund into TWA stock in order to make a killing, well I guess we know wo got killed. Roger Moore
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Capn Eddie Ricketyback
Post Captain
Member # 3010

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For a pretty comprehensive analysis of this situation, you may want to read this article in the WSJ. I hope I've been able to post it so that it's available to non-subscribers for 7 days.

If you read the article you'll see that fares, even including all the surcharges, are still lower than they were in 1995. I don't know how long they can keep that up and stay in business.

P.S.: I am dumbfounded by this:
quote:
Originally posted by Roger Moore:
We had a TWA pilot who will remain unnamed who dumped his entire B fund into TWA stock..

I don't know what he saw that would give him enough confidence in that company, or any company, to take that kind of risk with his future, but I sure never did. Although if I had shoveled all my funds into Apple or Chipotle instead of about 3% I would have achieved my goal of getting the hell out of the market by now, how was I to know?

[ 10-05-2011, 07:18: Message edited by: Capn Eddie Ricketyback ]

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extwacaptain
Prop Wash
Member # 381

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Captain Bob Dedman,

I am truly sorry to learn of your lack of friendly service on your flights to and from the TARPA convention, but not surprised based on news stories in recent years.

What does somewhat amaze me is....during TWA's final years of operation, when our financial situation and outlook for the future was most dim (somewhat similar to American's reported present condition) our F/As and other employees provided the passengers with some of the finest service in the industry. They did not stop smiling, nor spend large portions of time ignoring our customers.

Approximately five flights as a TWA passenger were made during our last years of operation. Without exception, Sally and I received some of the absolute finest service possible on an airplane. Of interest....The average F/A on each flight probably had 30 or more years with TWA.

No, there was no let down of pride or professionalism on TWA just because times were most difficult. It has been said and I believe it to be true: "This might have been their finest hour" (Thank you Mr. Churchill)

Bob, I'm kinda glad not to have flown as a passenger recently. Those great memories are how flying should still be today.

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Capn Eddie Ricketyback
Post Captain
Member # 3010

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quote:
Originally posted by extwacaptain:
I'm kinda glad not to have flown as a passenger recently.

Same here, Capt. Randy. My last flight was in 1996, and while I experienced similar service to you on that TWA flight, the process of standing by for 3 flights each way, not being able to get aboard a couple of them and having my plans disrupted as a result, I've never had the slightest desire to take a trip by air since. If such a trip is unavoidable I'll buy a ticket on the airline that offers the most convenient flight to my destination. In fact, my bride and I try to avoid any trip that involves an overnight stay when at all possible. We have more functions, concerts, meetings, etc. in our local area than we can attend now. Now that she has retired she promises to take the old guy out to even more events. Whenever the old guy complains she says that there will be plenty of time to sit around the house when we "get old," and she's right.
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Rocky Dollarhide
Post Captain
Member # 546

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I have 2 daughters who are business and health care professionals. Both travel extensively around the world.
Both are frequent flyer members for both American and United.
They are both treated much better on United and will avoid American whenever possible.
American does not seem to get it.
R$

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Jeff I.
Post Captain
Member # 2334

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My travel pace has been fairly constant since the "asset acquisition" by American. The past 15 months, though, I've been flying almost weekly ..... most of it from NY to Houston. I've stuck with AA for this travel (even though one can't get a non-stop from NY to Houston ..... not even Hobby anymore on American). My experience re: the service is as follows:

I've only had a couple flights where I felt the F/A's or agents were just rude. Most of the time the service is adequate or better than average. What I miss is that there seems to be a general lack of warmth or enthusiasm of the type I almost always found on my TWA flights. I was made to feel like family at TWA ...... it is one of the things I greatly miss in my travel these days. And ..... I'm not just saying this because of the TWA pilots on this board but ...... I find the AA pilots to be a bit less communicative (with notable exceptions) and, I don't know ..... maybe because I've read a lot of the threads on this board but ...... there was something about the TWA pilots that gave me a slightly better sense of security. Maybe it was the training, the collective experience ....... perhaps it is generational but ...... just miss that part of the overall flying experience as a passenger, too.

Jeff I.

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Robert Dedman
Post Captain
Member # 366

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Capt Jeff.
I must reply to your well stated blog.
What made TWA different were two things, desire to fly an "International Airline" and second, to have the best training in the industry. I will not bore you all will a long history, but, I worked for 6 airlines before I won the lottery with TWA. Had been to all kind of classes and procedures and guides but when I came to TWA with the most modern, up-to-date training boards and videos, I said, I am home. Great, devoted and professional instructors, there to HELP, not fail people. That was a refreshing thing in my life. I eventually ended up doing just what I said, help, not hinder people. We all learn at different rates but what we learn and practice is the end result and that was a TWA pilot. The best in the world, bar non. We had the discipline in the cockpit and the proper and safe procedures. Yes, we fought against changes many times but the changes were for the good and the safety of our passengers. I knew, if I had to fill in on a flight at any domicile, I could count on everything being done by the book. That is a nice feeling, no matter if you are a co-pilot or Captain. Those ideals kept us ahead of so many airlines...if only we had had some strong leadership, we would still be the leaders.
Sorry for the long message but I owe everything to TWA and most who visit or post on this site will say the same. We were also lucky to have the loyalty of persons like yourself. Thanks for posting.

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